Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 21.999006 25.852551 30.579503 36.945062 45.527514 57.078132 74.541258
2025-01-05 16.804470 20.934785 26.506081 34.938191 48.143255 69.686860 112.240129
2025-01-12 13.763533 17.691282 23.274122 32.320391 47.886052 76.908261 147.975755
2025-01-19 11.820112 15.531345 21.007905 30.343337 47.632225 83.693387 192.071726
2025-01-26 11.849712 16.163865 22.957869 35.653343 62.753011 134.623312 508.018000
2025-02-02 11.299331 15.802396 23.215222 38.007615 73.233780 188.636213 1391.142863
2025-02-09 10.185322 14.392547 21.448512 35.934425 72.183718 204.099569 2457.398470
2025-02-16 9.731802 13.999391 21.392782 37.361382 81.184898 278.904734 23751.179654
2025-02-23 9.141570 13.306887 20.681905 37.176722 85.559487 345.285125 NaN
2025-03-02 8.622718 12.682271 20.009450 36.920571 89.709562 429.112374 NaN
2025-03-09 8.251108 12.276336 19.699908 37.461565 97.175440 586.998355 NaN
2025-03-16 7.727722 11.556644 18.686621 36.027247 96.391357 658.942158 NaN
2025-03-23 7.342672 11.081869 18.166684 35.919686 101.898431 906.733853 NaN
2025-03-30 6.833763 10.346398 17.042047 33.996330 98.507335 975.401420 NaN
2025-04-06 6.321636 9.572915 15.772703 31.481693 91.343220 910.807921 NaN
2025-04-13 5.904757 8.951517 14.773573 29.579964 86.476917 897.493168 NaN
2025-04-20 6.086253 9.445473 16.161268 34.682542 121.225428 5042.367764 NaN
2025-04-27 6.018854 9.462539 16.523822 36.939773 145.068570 68827.330259 NaN
2025-05-04 5.681886 8.936312 15.614725 34.952198 137.786258 77243.595669 NaN
2025-05-11 5.578195 8.858181 15.718526 36.320477 157.854698 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 5.390446 8.601992 15.384868 36.143473 165.716530 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 5.212351 8.354545 15.049675 35.897911 173.168026 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 5.086762 8.204693 14.932559 36.416498 189.752585 NaN NaN